CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
54-52 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
61-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 4-9 | 3.89 | 1.15 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Nick Martinez | 9-2 | 2.45 | 1.12 | 6.0 | 5 |
4-9
W-L
9-2
3.89
ERA
Ldr 2.45
1.15
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
40%
RAYS
60%
GUARDIANS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
64%
Under 0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Guardians (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+32.5% more
Tampa Bay: 10.9
vs
Cleveland: 8.2
Total Bases (L5)
+30.0% more
Tampa Bay: 17.8
vs
Cleveland: 13.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.7% more
Tampa Bay: 8.3
vs
Cleveland: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
0
TB Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.9 / 8.2
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 13.7
11.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-68
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-10
43%
69-90-2
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