TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
48-57 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
53-50 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 6-5 | 2.46 | 1.14 | 9.0 | 12 |
| Sonny Gray | 12-1 | 2.78 | 1.12 | 5.0 | 3 |
6-5
W-L
12-1
2.46 Ldr
ERA
2.78
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.12
9.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
12 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
41%
RED SOX
59%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
77%
Under 0
23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.3
TORONTO
Boston
6.3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.6
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+73.0% more
Boston: 1.3
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+38.3% more
Boston: 14.4
vs
Toronto: 10.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.9% more
Boston: 8.8
vs
Toronto: 7.4
Hits (L5)
+16.8% more
Boston: 8.4
vs
Toronto: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.3
6
BOS Score
6.3
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.2
1.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.4
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 10.4
2.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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