SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
52-53 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-53 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez | 6-6 | 4.68 | 1.52 | 2.2 | -- |
| Eury Perez | 5-7 | 3.56 | 1.11 | 7.0 | 2 |
6-6
W-L
5-7
4.68
ERA
Ldr 3.56
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
2.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
40%
MARLINS
60%
PADRES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SD By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.2
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5.6
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+59.2% more
San Diego: 4.8
vs
Miami: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+26.9% more
San Diego: 1.7
vs
Miami: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
7
MIA Score
5.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.1
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 9.6
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.5
5.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SD
MIA
SD
ML
48%
78-84
51%
85-83
55%
88-72
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
91-77
54%
86-74
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
82-80-6
53%
82-73-5
54%
86-74-6
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