KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
44-62 | Road
3
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
50-55 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Wacha
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Waguespack
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 5-7 | 3.60 | 1.17 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Jacob Waguespack | None-None | 1.65 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
5-7
W-L
None-None
3.60
ERA
Ldr 1.65
1.17
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
46%
TIGERS
54%
ROYALS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
KC By 1-2 runs
17.2%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.3%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.2
KANSAS CITY
Detroit
4.8
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
DET @ KC
7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026
DET @ KC
1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
DET @ KC
2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026
KC @ DET
5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026
KC @ DET
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Detroit: 1.0
vs
Kansas City: 0.7
Home Runs (Season)
+6.5% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.2
3
DET Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.2
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.2
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 11.7
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.6
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54%
86-73
55%
89-72
54%
87-73
56%
90-70
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
91-70
57%
91-69
58%
93-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
58%
90-64-7
46%
69-81-10
54%
83-70-7
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