CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
48-54 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
52-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Gastelum
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 3-7 | 5.61 | 1.64 | 5.0 | 4 |
| Luis Gastelum | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
3-7
W-L
None-None
5.61 Ldr
ERA
6.43
1.64
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
36%
CARDINALS
64%
REDS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699
▲
OPS
.691
213
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.3% more
St. Louis: 7.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.0
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
St. Louis: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 7.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.5
4
STL Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.1
2.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 2.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.0
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 14.6
4.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53%
85-74
55%
88-71
52%
84-77
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-5
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-72-5
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