ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
44-59 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
51-54 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 4-4 | 6.12 | 1.73 | 5.0 | 4 |
| Zebby Matthews | 4-7 | 5.21 | 1.34 | 6.0 | 1 |
4-4
W-L
4-7
6.12
ERA
Ldr 5.21
1.73
WHIP
Ldr 1.34
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
41%
TWINS
59%
ATHLETICS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
MIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
MIN @ ATH
2 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
MIN @ ATH
9 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
ATH @ MIN
8 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
ATH @ MIN
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.719
OPS
▲
.720
194
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+43.3% more
Minnesota: 10.1
vs
Athletics: 7.1
Walks (L5)
+19.0% more
Minnesota: 3.2
vs
Athletics: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.8% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+46.1% more
Athletics: 1.4
vs
Minnesota: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.0
2
MIN Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 10.2
2.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 7.1
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 16.8
3.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.7
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATH
MIN
ATH
ML
52%
84-78
59%
95-67
50%
80-81
54%
87-74
ATS
59%
95-67
52%
84-78
59%
95-66
50%
81-80
TTL
51%
78-75-9
54%
84-73-5
53%
80-72-9
42%
66-90-5
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