SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
51-53 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
52-51 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
MacKenzie Gore
#1 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 4-4 | 2.75 | 0.88 | 5.1 | -- |
| MacKenzie Gore | 6-8 | 4.82 | 1.28 | 5.0 | 5 |
4-4
W-L
6-8
2.75 Ldr
ERA
4.82
0.88 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
63%
RANGERS
37%
MARINERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
TEX By 1-2 runs
14.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.8
SEATTLE
Texas
3.2
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Texas
3
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.713
182
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Seattle: 0.4
vs
Texas: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+32.6% more
Seattle: 3.1
vs
Texas: 2.1
Home Runs (L5)
+50.0% more
Texas: 1.5
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+36.8% more
Texas: 15.9
vs
Seattle: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.8
4
TEX Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.7
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.2
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 11.7
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SEA
TEX
SEA
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-81
57%
91-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
98-64
61%
98-63
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
78-70-14
56%
85-67-10
55%
81-66-14
53%
81-71-10
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