TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
47-57 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
53-49 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | 4-5 | 3.92 | 1.16 | 4.0 | 9 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 0-0 | 3.21 | 1.71 | 4.2 | 3 |
4-5
W-L
0-0
3.92
ERA
Ldr 3.21
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.71
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
67%
RED SOX
33%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.5
TORONTO
Boston
3.5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Sox
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+28.3%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.5
4
BOS Score
3.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.5 / 6.2
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 7.2
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 8.7
21.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.1
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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