SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
51-53 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-52 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
German Marquez
#33 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| German Marquez | 4-2 | 5.17 | 1.54 | 2.1 | 4 |
| Ryan Gusto | 0-2 | 4.50 | 1.37 | 3.1 | 4 |
4-2
W-L
0-2
5.17
ERA
Ldr 4.50
1.54
WHIP
Ldr 1.37
2.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
33%
MARLINS
67%
PADRES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SD By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.8%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5.2
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
MIA @ SD
3 - 7
Sep 19, 2026
MIA @ SD
6 - 7
Sep 18, 2026
MIA @ SD
2 - 8
Jul 26, 2026
SD @ MIA
5 - 3
Jul 25, 2026
SD @ MIA
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.925
▲
OPS
.727
4
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4100.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
San Diego: 0.6
Home Runs (L5)
+58.7% more
San Diego: 2.0
vs
Miami: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+34.1% more
San Diego: 3.7
vs
Miami: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.2
4
MIA Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.6
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 10.4
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 17.2
17.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 3.7
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SD
MIA
SD
ML
48%
78-84
51%
85-83
55%
88-72
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
91-71
54%
91-77
54%
86-74
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
82-80-6
53%
82-73-5
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …