Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Mets LAD @ NYM

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

66-38  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Jul 24 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

43-61  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Roki Sasaki 3-5 4.71 1.34 7.0 9
Sean Manaea 2-5 4.52 1.36 6.0 3
3-5 W-L 2-5
4.71 ERA Ldr 4.52
1.34 Ldr WHIP 1.36
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
63%
📊
METS
37%
DODGERS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 48%
Under 0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

64.6%

Mets Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.762 ▲
OPS
.705
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs New York: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season) +12.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +5.7%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.9%
Los Angeles: 42.4% vs New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 4
NYM Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 7.9 4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.4 / 8.7 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 14.6 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
LAD
NYM
LAD
ML
50% 79-80
56% 92-73
48% 76-83
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-66
59% 98-67
49% 78-81
43% 72-94
TTL
55% 80-66-13
48% 77-82-6
51% 74-72-13
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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