CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
54-51 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
60-43 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane McClanahan
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 8-5 | 4.02 | 1.42 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Shane McClanahan | 8-6 | 3.09 | 1.15 | 5.0 | 3 |
8-5
W-L
8-6
4.02
ERA
Ldr 3.09
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
37%
RAYS
63%
GUARDIANS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2.8
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
4.2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Cleveland
2
CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (Season)
+4.3% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.2%
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.8
3
TB Score
4.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.8
15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.5
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 14.5
27.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-68
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-10
43%
69-90-2
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