ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
55-49 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
52-52 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carson Palmquist
#51 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 8-3 | 2.64 | 1.22 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Carson Palmquist | 0-1 | 9.24 | 1.68 | 1.1 | 1 |
8-3
W-L
0-1
2.64 Ldr
ERA
9.24
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.68
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
NATIONALS
42%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
38%
Under 0
62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.5
ARIZONA
Washington
3.5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.720
OPS
▲
.744
166
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+43.2% more
Arizona: 5.5
vs
Washington: 3.1
Hits (L5)
+13.1% more
Arizona: 12.9
vs
Washington: 11.2
Total Bases (L5)
+10.4% more
Arizona: 22.4
vs
Washington: 20.1
Home Runs (L5)
+9.6% more
Arizona: 2.0
vs
Washington: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.5
3
WSH Score
3.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.2 / 12.9
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 2.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.2
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.1 / 22.4
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.1 / 5.5
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ARI
WSH
ARI
ML
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
57%
91-70
56%
89-71
TTL
50%
77-78-6
52%
80-73-8
42%
65-90-6
49%
73-77-9
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