Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Phillies NYY @ PHI

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

58-45  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jul 24 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

56-48  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jesus Luzardo
STARTING PITCHER

Jesus Luzardo

#44 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cam Schlittler 9-6 2.07 0.96 7.1 12
Jesus Luzardo 9-4 3.31 1.21 7.0 9
9-6 W-L 9-4
2.07 Ldr ERA 3.31
0.96 Ldr WHIP 1.21
7.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
12 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 9
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
37%
📊
PHILLIES
63%
YANKEES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Philadelphia)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

34.5%

Phillies Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYY By 1-2 runs

14.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

8.9%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
NEW YORK
4.8
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 NYY @ PHI 4 - 11
Jul 25, 2026 NYY @ PHI 3 - 1
Jul 24, 2026 NYY @ PHI 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2025 PHI @ NYY 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 PHI @ NYY 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Philadelphia PHI
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.438
1.041 ▲
OPS
.724
2
Home Runs
▲ 3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +78.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.7 vs New York: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +31.3% more
Philadelphia: 10.1 vs New York: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +18.9% more
Philadelphia: 14.8 vs New York: 12.4
Runs per Game (Season) +61.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.2 1
PHI Score 4.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 7.7 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 7.7 13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 12.4 5.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYY
PHI
NYY
ML
59% 97-67
47% 76-85
49% 80-84
52% 85-77
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 95-66
51% 83-81
53% 86-76
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 81-73-7
51% 78-76-9
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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