CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
58-45 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
53-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 6-1 | 3.81 | 1.21 | 7.0 | 4 |
| Jared Jones | 2-1 | 3.72 | 1.10 | 6.0 | 5 |
6-1
W-L
2-1
3.81
ERA
Ldr 3.72
1.21
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
59%
PIRATES
41%
CUBS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.2
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
3.2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.374
OPS
▲
.734
0
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.5% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+27.7% more
Chicago: 4.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Total Bases (L5)
+19.4% more
Chicago: 14.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.5
Hits (L5)
+11.8% more
Chicago: 8.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.2
3
PIT Score
3.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.3
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 10.2
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 14.3
8.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHC
PIT
CHC
ML
52%
82-77
58%
93-68
52%
85-78
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
81-82
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
79-78-6
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …