COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
42-63 | Road
5
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
64-39 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 9-4 | 4.69 | 1.29 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Shane Drohan | 5-3 | 3.51 | 1.18 | 6.0 | 6 |
9-4
W-L
5-3
4.69
ERA
Ldr 3.51
1.29
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
40%
BREWERS
60%
ROCKIES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.2
COLORADO
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Milwaukee
7
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
COL @ MIL
2 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
COL @ MIL
5 - 8
Jul 24, 2026
COL @ MIL
5 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
MIL @ COL
12 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
MIL @ COL
7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.739
OPS
▲
.743
180
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+29.5% more
Milwaukee: 3.9
vs
Colorado: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.8% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.9%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Colorado: 32.2%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Milwaukee: 25.8%
vs
Colorado: 25.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.2
5
MIL Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.1
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.5
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 13.1
15.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.0
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
COL
MIL
COL
ML
62%
101-61
60%
97-64
52%
84-78
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
94-68
60%
97-64
48%
78-84
52%
83-78
TTL
40%
62-92-8
60%
93-62-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
77-78-6
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