Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Tigers KC @ DET

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

43-61  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Jul 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

49-54  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Randy Dobnak 0-0 1.42 1.50 5.0 3
Troy Melton 5-1 1.95 0.87 5.0 5
0-0 W-L 5-1
1.42 Ldr ERA 1.95
1.50 WHIP Ldr 0.87
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
TIGERS
59%
ROYALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Tigers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +70.2% more
Detroit: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 1.0
Walks (L5) +27.1% more
Detroit: 2.3 vs Kansas City: 1.8
Strikeouts (L5) +26.6% more
Detroit: 9.5 vs Kansas City: 7.5
Total Bases (L5) +13.0% more
Detroit: 15.2 vs Kansas City: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 3
DET Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 8.6 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 7.5 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 13.4 14.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.8 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54% 86-73
55% 89-72
54% 87-73
56% 90-70
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 20 hours, 9 minutes ago
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
si 1 day, 2 hours ago
Patrick Mahomes Sr. Cleared for Chiefs Home Games with Strict Ur…
nypost 2 days, 2 hours ago
Dodgers Predicted to Re-Sign $32M Ace Tarik Skubal, Keeping Rota…
sportingnews 3 days, 8 hours ago
Tarik Skubal Set for First Home Playoff Start as Dodgers Host Br…
yourvalley_net 5 days, 14 hours ago