ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
54-49 | Road
10
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
52-50 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Pfaadt
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 4-1 | 4.43 | 1.31 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Michael McGreevy | 4-7 | 3.07 | 1.10 | 6.1 | 3 |
4-1
W-L
4-7
4.43
ERA
Ldr 3.07
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
CARDINALS
63%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
43%
Under 0
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
2.5
ARIZONA
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720
▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.2% more
St. Louis: 9.5
vs
Arizona: 7.8
Home Runs (L5)
+79.2% more
Arizona: 2.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+63.7% more
Arizona: 21.6
vs
St. Louis: 7.9
Hits (L5)
+49.4% more
Arizona: 11.4
vs
St. Louis: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
2.5
10
STL Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 11.4
13.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 2.5
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.8
2.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
7.9 / 21.6
16.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.9 / 5.7
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53%
85-74
54%
87-74
52%
84-77
54%
86-74
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
91-70
53%
85-76
56%
89-71
TTL
46%
68-81-10
52%
80-73-8
50%
76-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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