TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
59-43 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
47-56 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Legumina
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Legumina | 2-2 | 3.95 | 1.28 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Shane Bieber | 1-1 | 4.70 | 1.73 | 7.0 | 3 |
2-2
W-L
1-1
3.95 Ldr
ERA
4.70
1.28 Ldr
WHIP
1.73
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
67%
BLUE JAYS
33%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rays
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+52.7% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+50.9% more
Tampa Bay: 17.3
vs
Toronto: 8.5
Walks (L5)
+50.5% more
Tampa Bay: 3.3
vs
Toronto: 1.6
Hits (L5)
+50.2% more
Tampa Bay: 11.8
vs
Toronto: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.5
1
TOR Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 11.8
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.1
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.5 / 17.3
9.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.6 / 3.3
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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