SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
50-53 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
60-42 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Hart
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hart | 0-2 | 5.50 | 1.14 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Chris Sale | 10-6 | 2.19 | 1.06 | 6.0 | 11 |
0-2
W-L
10-6
5.50
ERA
Ldr 2.19
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 11
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
38%
BRAVES
62%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SD By 1-2 runs
14.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.2
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
4.8
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.4% more
Atlanta: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 8.1
Home Runs (L5)
+59.4% more
San Diego: 2.5
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+23.8% more
San Diego: 19.8
vs
Atlanta: 15.1
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.2
5
ATL Score
4.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 9.9
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 2.5
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.1
8.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 19.8
21.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.6 / 5.1
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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