MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-51 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
50-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 10-5 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 7.0 | 3 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-5 | 3.03 | 1.11 | 6.0 | 3 |
10-5
W-L
8-5
4.01
ERA
Ldr 3.03
1.22
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
36%
ASTROS
64%
MARLINS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIA By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
8.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.2
MIAMI
Houston
4.8
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
MIA @ HOU
2 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
3 - 5
Jul 20, 2026
MIA @ HOU
5 - 8
Aug 6, 2025
HOU @ MIA
4 - 6
Aug 5, 2025
HOU @ MIA
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.727
▲
OPS
.582
168
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.3% more
Houston: 1.7
vs
Miami: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+9.7% more
Houston: 14.5
vs
Miami: 13.2
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+67.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.2
2
HOU Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.8
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.2
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 11.9
5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 13.2
18.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIA
HOU
MIA
ML
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
47%
77-87
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
91-71
55%
90-74
54%
86-74
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
88-69-5
45%
69-86-9
53%
82-73-5
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