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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

48-54  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Jul 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

57-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keider Montero 6-5 3.14 0.98 5.1 8
Colin Rea 7-6 4.85 1.42 5.0 5
6-5 W-L 7-6
3.14 Ldr ERA 4.85
0.98 Ldr WHIP 1.42
5.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
32%
📊
CUBS
68%
TIGERS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

DET By 1-2 runs

13.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
DETROIT
4.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
DETROIT
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 DET @ CHC 5 - 1
Jul 21, 2026 DET @ CHC 2 - 11
Jul 20, 2026 DET @ CHC 8 - 6
Jun 8, 2025 CHC @ DET 0 - 4
Jun 7, 2025 CHC @ DET 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720 ▲
OPS
.374
181 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +137.2% more
Chicago: 6.8 vs Detroit: 2.9
Hits (L5) +32.2% more
Chicago: 10.4 vs Detroit: 7.9
Total Bases (L5) +22.5% more
Chicago: 17.5 vs Detroit: 14.3
Strikeouts (L5) +12.2% more
Chicago: 9.3 vs Detroit: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.5 5
CHC Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.4 / 7.9 4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.3 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 14.3 8.0 / 17.0
Walks 6.8 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
DET
CHC
DET
ML
58% 93-68
54% 86-73
51% 82-79
54% 87-73
ATS
61% 97-63-1
64% 101-58
47% 75-85-1
57% 91-69
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 69-81-9
46% 72-83-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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