SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
50-52 | Road
6
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
59-42 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael King | 6-7 | 3.24 | 1.16 | 6.0 | 7 |
| Martin Perez | 6-6 | 3.38 | 1.19 | 4.0 | 3 |
6-7
W-L
6-6
3.24 Ldr
ERA
3.38
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
37%
BRAVES
63%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SD By 1-2 runs
15.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.5
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.6% more
Atlanta: 8.4
vs
San Diego: 7.2
Home Runs (L5)
+44.8% more
San Diego: 2.8
vs
Atlanta: 1.5
Total Bases (L5)
+33.3% more
San Diego: 21.3
vs
Atlanta: 14.2
Hits (L5)
+32.2% more
San Diego: 10.8
vs
Atlanta: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.5
6
ATL Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 10.8
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.2
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 21.3
17.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.4 / 4.6
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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