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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

50-53  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Jul 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

52-49  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Eduardo Rivera

#99 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
Eduardo Rivera None-None 6.30 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 Ldr ERA 6.30
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
37%
📊
RED SOX
63%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Boston)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

35.4%

Red Sox Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
BALTIMORE
5.5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +36.4% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Baltimore: 1.1
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +76.8% more
Baltimore: 2.2 vs Boston: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.0 5
BOS Score 5.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.0 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 12.4 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 13.6 6.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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