TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
59-42 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
46-56 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 5-7 | 3.89 | 1.27 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Braydon Fisher | 3-3 | 3.73 | 1.18 | 1.1 | 1 |
5-7
W-L
3-3
3.89
ERA
Ldr 3.73
1.27
WHIP
Ldr 1.18
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
41%
BLUE JAYS
59%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
6
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+96.0% more
Toronto: 1.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+78.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+59.2% more
Tampa Bay: 21.4
vs
Toronto: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+50.2% more
Tampa Bay: 13.6
vs
Toronto: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
4
TOR Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 13.6
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.4 / 7.7
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 21.4
8.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.9
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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