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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

65-38  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Jul 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

56-47  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Eric Lauer
STARTING PITCHER

Eric Lauer

#33 | SP
@
Aaron Nola
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Nola

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eric Lauer 4-5 4.83 1.28 5.1 5
Aaron Nola 3-7 5.82 1.45 5.1 4
4-5 W-L 3-7
4.83 Ldr ERA 5.82
1.28 Ldr WHIP 1.45
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 5.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
66%
📊
PHILLIES
34%
DODGERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 51%
Under 0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

Phillies Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

PHI By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
LOS ANGELES
3.8
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.762 ▲
OPS
.724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +29.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season) +5.2%
Los Angeles: 33.8% vs Philadelphia: 28.6%
OPS (Season) +3.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Philadelphia: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.8 9
PHI Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.4 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 9.5 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 10.9 14.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.2 / 1.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
99%MONEY1%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAD
PHI
LAD
ML
59% 97-67
56% 92-73
49% 80-84
48% 79-87
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 98-67
51% 83-81
43% 72-94
TTL
57% 88-67-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-76-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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