Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Angels STL @ LAA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

52-49  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jul 22 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

41-62  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Dobbins
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Dobbins

#40 | Starting Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Dobbins 1-1 3.18 1.39 6.0 5
Reid Detmers 3-6 4.05 1.12 5.1 6
1-1 W-L 3-6
3.18 Ldr ERA 4.05
1.39 WHIP Ldr 1.12
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.1
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
37%
📊
ANGELS
63%
CARDINALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Los Angeles)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ST. LOUIS
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
ST. LOUIS
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 0
Jul 21, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 5
Jul 20, 2026 STL @ LAA 2 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 LAA @ STL 5 - 12
Apr 1, 2025 LAA @ STL 9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.691 ▲
OPS
.679
167 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +44.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +32.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.6 vs St. Louis: 8.8
Walks (L5) +18.1% more
Los Angeles: 3.4 vs St. Louis: 2.9
Hits (L5) +15.1% more
Los Angeles: 8.2 vs St. Louis: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.8 1
LAA Score 5.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.1 7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 9.2 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 8.8 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
STL
LAA
STL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 85-74
55% 89-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 89-70
51% 82-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 68-81-10
52% 82-75-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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