CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
47-54 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
51-52 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 4-9 | 4.53 | 1.41 | 6.2 | 6 |
| Emerson Hancock | 6-4 | 3.16 | 1.01 | 6.0 | 3 |
4-9
W-L
6-4
4.53
ERA
Ldr 3.16
1.41
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
37%
MARINERS
63%
REDS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.2
CINCINNATI
Seattle
4.8
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
CIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Jul 21, 2026
CIN @ SEA
4 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
CIN @ SEA
0 - 8
Apr 17, 2025
SEA @ CIN
11 - 7
Apr 16, 2025
SEA @ CIN
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.699
▲
OPS
.693
213
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.0% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Cincinnati: 2.8
Hits (L5)
+20.8% more
Seattle: 8.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.9% more
Seattle: 7.8
vs
Cincinnati: 6.5
Errors (L5)
+18.0% more
Seattle: 0.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.2
5
SEA Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.7
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 2.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 14.5
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.8
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CIN
SEA
CIN
ML
50%
81-81
55%
88-71
52%
85-77
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
81-73-5
53%
81-71-10
54%
83-72-5
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