ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
43-59 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
53-49 | Home
15
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gage Jump
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gage Jump | 3-5 | 4.42 | 1.32 | 4.2 | 5 |
| Merrill Kelly | 7-8 | 5.12 | 1.49 | 5.0 | 3 |
3-5
W-L
7-8
4.42 Ldr
ERA
5.12
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.49
4.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
40%
DIAMONDBACKS
60%
ATHLETICS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.2
ATHLETICS
Arizona
5.2
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
ATH @ ARI
5 - 15
Jul 21, 2026
ATH @ ARI
5 - 6
Jul 20, 2026
ATH @ ARI
5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025
ARI @ ATH
6 - 4
Aug 2, 2025
ARI @ ATH
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲
.720
194
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+80.2% more
Arizona: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+27.8% more
Athletics: 1.6
vs
Arizona: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+21.0% more
Athletics: 17.7
vs
Arizona: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.2
5
ARI Score
5.2
15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 10.4
17.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.6
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 8.1
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 17.7
37.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.5
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
ATH
ARI
ATH
ML
54%
87-74
59%
95-67
54%
86-74
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
91-70
52%
84-78
56%
89-71
50%
81-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
54%
84-73-5
49%
73-77-9
42%
66-90-5
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