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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

52-51  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Jul 22 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

41-63  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Cade Cavalli
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Cavalli

#24 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gabriel Hughes
STARTING PITCHER

Gabriel Hughes

#43 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cade Cavalli 6-4 3.58 1.31 6.0 8
Gabriel Hughes 0-1 2.79 1.12 5.0 5
6-4 W-L 0-1
3.58 ERA Ldr 2.79
1.31 WHIP Ldr 1.12
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
63%
📊
ROCKIES
37%
NATIONALS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

64.6%

Rockies Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.5
WASHINGTON
5
COLORADO
Simulated Score
8
WASHINGTON
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim o11.5 Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 COL @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026 COL @ WSH 13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026 COL @ WSH 3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026 WSH @ COL 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.744 ▲
OPS
.739
210 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +81.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs Colorado: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +32.0% more
Washington: 9.3 vs Colorado: 6.3
Home Runs (L5) +28.7% more
Washington: 2.2 vs Colorado: 1.5
Total Bases (L5) +20.1% more
Washington: 19.7 vs Colorado: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 6.5 8
COL Score 5.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.0 3.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.8 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 9.3 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.7 / 19.7 8.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.2 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
WSH
COL
WSH
ML
60% 97-64
57% 92-69
55% 88-73
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-64
58% 93-68
52% 83-78
57% 91-70
TTL
60% 93-62-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 77-78-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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