SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
42-60 | Road
4
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
43-60 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 7-8 | 3.93 | 1.27 | 6.0 | 7 |
| Seth Lugo | 3-6 | 4.36 | 1.41 | 7.0 | 5 |
7-8
W-L
3-6
3.93 Ldr
ERA
4.36
1.27 Ldr
WHIP
1.41
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
59%
ROYALS
41%
GIANTS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
51%
Under 0
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
16.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Giants
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
SF @ KC
4 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
SF @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SF @ KC
3 - 4
May 21, 2025
KC @ SF
8 - 4
May 20, 2025
KC @ SF
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.706
OPS
▲
.718
178
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.8% more
San Francisco: 10.1
vs
Kansas City: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+19.4% more
San Francisco: 2.7
vs
Kansas City: 2.2
Home Runs (Season)
+4.5% more
San Francisco: 178.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7
vs
San Francisco: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.8
4
KC Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.3
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.1
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 10.3
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SF
KC
SF
ML
55%
89-72
49%
79-81
56%
90-70
53%
85-75
ATS
57%
91-70
62%
100-60
58%
93-67
52%
83-77
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
82-68-10
54%
83-70-7
46%
68-81-11
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