PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
53-50 | Road
0
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
57-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 3-8 | 4.47 | 1.45 | 6.1 | 5 |
| Max Fried | 4-3 | 2.97 | 1.01 | 5.0 | 7 |
3-8
W-L
4-3
4.47
ERA
Ldr 2.97
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
YANKEES
67%
PIRATES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.5
PITTSBURGH
New York
5.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
PIT @ NYY
0 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
PIT @ NYY
5 - 8
Apr 6, 2025
NYY @ PIT
4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025
NYY @ PIT
10 - 4
Apr 4, 2025
NYY @ PIT
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.734
OPS
▲
1.041
186
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Home Runs (L5)
+33.0% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+12.2%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.5
0
NYY Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 9.5
5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 10.5
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 15.8
7.0 / 3.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
PIT
NYY
PIT
ML
47%
76-85
52%
82-77
52%
85-77
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
95-66
54%
86-73
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
72-81-6
53%
82-72-7
50%
79-78-6
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