CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
46-54 | Road
4
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
51-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Rucker
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | 11-1 | 2.42 | 1.11 | 5.0 | 6 |
| Michael Rucker | None-None | 5.17 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
11-1
W-L
None-None
2.42 Ldr
ERA
5.17
1.11
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
37%
MARINERS
63%
REDS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Seattle
4.5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mariners
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Mariners
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
CIN @ SEA
5 - 3
Jul 21, 2026
CIN @ SEA
4 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
CIN @ SEA
0 - 8
Apr 17, 2025
SEA @ CIN
11 - 7
Apr 16, 2025
SEA @ CIN
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.699
▲
OPS
.693
213
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+21.0% more
Seattle: 9.0
vs
Cincinnati: 7.5
Walks (L5)
+17.1% more
Seattle: 3.2
vs
Cincinnati: 2.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 23.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.0
4
SEA Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.5
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.9
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 7.8
9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 14.7
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.7
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CIN
SEA
CIN
ML
50%
81-81
55%
88-71
52%
85-77
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
81-73-5
53%
81-71-10
54%
83-72-5
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