Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Angels STL @ LAA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

51-49  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

41-61  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matthew Liberatore
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Liberatore

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Walbert Urena
STARTING PITCHER

Walbert Urena

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matthew Liberatore 5-6 5.18 1.48 5.1 7
Walbert Urena 5-7 2.78 1.32 6.0 5
5-6 W-L 5-7
5.18 ERA Ldr 2.78
1.48 WHIP Ldr 1.32
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
62%
📊
ANGELS
38%
CARDINALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

36.3%

Angels Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
ST. LOUIS
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
ST. LOUIS
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 0
Jul 21, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 5
Jul 20, 2026 STL @ LAA 2 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 LAA @ STL 5 - 12
Apr 1, 2025 LAA @ STL 9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.691 ▲
OPS
.679
167 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +18.9% more
St. Louis: 3.8 vs Los Angeles: 3.1
Runs per Game (Season) +9.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +7.8% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
OPS (Season) +1.2%
St. Louis: 69.1% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 5.2 1
LAA Score 3.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.2 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.3 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 9.7 15.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.8 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
STL
LAA
STL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 85-74
55% 89-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 89-70
51% 82-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 68-81-10
52% 82-75-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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