MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-50 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
49-54 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tatsuya Imai
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | 2-4 | 3.52 | 1.39 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Tatsuya Imai | 5-4 | 5.59 | 1.50 | 6.0 | 8 |
2-4
W-L
5-4
3.52 Ldr
ERA
5.59
1.39 Ldr
WHIP
1.50
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
ASTROS
63%
MARLINS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
MIA @ HOU
2 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
MIA @ HOU
3 - 5
Jul 20, 2026
MIA @ HOU
5 - 8
Aug 6, 2025
HOU @ MIA
4 - 6
Aug 5, 2025
HOU @ MIA
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.727
▲
OPS
.582
168
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+52.2% more
Houston: 3.8
vs
Miami: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+18.4% more
Houston: 1.6
vs
Miami: 1.4
Total Bases (L5)
+15.6% more
Houston: 14.3
vs
Miami: 12.4
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.8
3
HOU Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.7
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 11.3
5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 12.4
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.5
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIA
HOU
MIA
ML
50%
81-82
48%
78-84
47%
77-87
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
91-71
55%
90-74
54%
86-74
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
88-69-5
45%
69-86-9
53%
82-73-5
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