DETROIT
TIGERSDET
47-54 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
57-44 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Framber Valdez
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Peterson
#19 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 5-6 | 4.57 | 1.32 | 0.2 | 1 |
| David Peterson | 4-7 | 5.97 | 1.64 | 6.2 | 4 |
5-6
W-L
4-7
4.57 Ldr
ERA
5.97
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.64
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
33%
CUBS
67%
TIGERS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
DET By 1-2 runs
13.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2.8
DETROIT
Chicago
4.8
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
DET @ CHC
5 - 1
Jul 21, 2026
DET @ CHC
2 - 11
Jul 20, 2026
DET @ CHC
8 - 6
Jun 8, 2025
CHC @ DET
0 - 4
Jun 7, 2025
CHC @ DET
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
181
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+68.1% more
Chicago: 4.7
vs
Detroit: 2.8
Hits (L5)
+21.8% more
Chicago: 10.2
vs
Detroit: 8.4
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Chicago: 0.7
vs
Detroit: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+11.3% more
Chicago: 17.7
vs
Detroit: 15.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.8
2
CHC Score
4.8
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.4
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 2.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.4
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 15.9
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.8
11.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
DET
CHC
DET
ML
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
51%
82-79
54%
87-73
ATS
61%
97-63-1
64%
101-58
47%
75-85-1
57%
91-69
TTL
52%
81-74-6
46%
69-81-9
46%
72-83-6
46%
69-81-10
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