SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
42-59 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
42-60 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Smith
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Luinder Avila
#58 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Smith | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Luinder Avila | 4-3 | 4.86 | 1.62 | 6.1 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
4-3
3.00 Ldr
ERA
4.86
--
WHIP
1.62
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
37%
ROYALS
63%
GIANTS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
SF By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
9.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
KC By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Giants
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Giants (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
SF @ KC
4 - 5
Jul 21, 2026
SF @ KC
2 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SF @ KC
3 - 4
May 21, 2025
KC @ SF
8 - 4
May 20, 2025
KC @ SF
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.706
OPS
▲
.718
178
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.0% more
Kansas City: 8.7
vs
San Francisco: 7.0
Total Bases (L5)
+14.1% more
Kansas City: 14.2
vs
San Francisco: 12.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.1% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+1.2%
Kansas City: 71.8%
vs
San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.8
2
KC Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.0
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 10.1
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 12.5
11.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SF
KC
SF
ML
55%
89-72
49%
79-81
56%
90-70
53%
85-75
ATS
57%
91-70
62%
100-60
58%
93-67
52%
83-77
TTL
58%
90-64-7
55%
82-68-10
54%
83-70-7
46%
68-81-11
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