NEW YORK
METSNYM
43-59 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
63-38 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Sproat
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Thornton | 0-1 | 1.93 | 0.92 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Sproat | 3-4 | 5.09 | 1.37 | 4.2 | 4 |
0-1
W-L
3-4
1.93 Ldr
ERA
5.09
0.92 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
36%
BREWERS
64%
METS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
51%
Under 0
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.8
NEW YORK
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Milwaukee
6
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
MIL @ NYM
2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
NYM @ MIL
3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026
NYM @ MIL
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.705
OPS
▲
.743
204
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.5
vs
New York: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+27.5% more
Milwaukee: 14.9
vs
New York: 11.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+19.3% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+3.8%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.8
4
MIL Score
5.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 7.7
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 11.0
3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.7
4.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.4
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
NYM
MIL
NYM
ML
62%
101-61
50%
79-80
52%
84-78
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-66
48%
78-84
49%
78-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-77-8
51%
74-72-13
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