SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
50-51 | Road
8
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
58-42 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | 5-5 | 5.23 | 1.44 | 5.2 | 3 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 4-2 | 3.95 | 1.26 | 4.1 | 6 |
5-5
W-L
4-2
5.23
ERA
Ldr 3.95
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.26
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
41%
BRAVES
59%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.2
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+55.2% more
Atlanta: 8.2
vs
San Diego: 5.3
Walks (L5)
+33.2% more
San Diego: 3.9
vs
Atlanta: 2.6
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
San Diego: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
8
ATL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 9.8
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 2.2
0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 5.3
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 17.9
7.0 / 28.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.9
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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