MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
49-53 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
54-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kendry Rojas
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendry Rojas | 1-1 | 3.32 | 1.60 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Parker Messick | 8-5 | 2.68 | 1.07 | 5.2 | 6 |
1-1
W-L
8-5
3.32
ERA
Ldr 2.68
1.60
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
2.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
GUARDIANS
63%
TWINS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
4.5
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Twins
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
187
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+234.0% more
Cleveland: 2.9
vs
Minnesota: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+85.1% more
Cleveland: 23.3
vs
Minnesota: 12.6
Hits (L5)
+42.9% more
Cleveland: 12.2
vs
Minnesota: 8.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.6% more
Cleveland: 8.8
vs
Minnesota: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
2
CLE Score
4.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.2 / 8.5
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.9 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.2
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
23.3 / 12.6
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.8
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIN
CLE
MIN
ML
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
49%
80-82
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-9
43%
69-90-2
53%
80-72-9
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