Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Phillies LAD @ PHI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

64-38  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

56-46  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Wrobleski 10-2 2.62 1.02 6.1 7
Zack Wheeler 10-1 2.16 0.89 7.0 9
10-2 W-L 10-1
2.62 ERA Ldr 2.16
1.02 WHIP Ldr 0.89
6.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
7 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
41%
📊
PHILLIES
59%
DODGERS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Phillies Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.762 ▲
OPS
.724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +84.4% more
Philadelphia: 2.4 vs Los Angeles: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +50.7% more
Philadelphia: 17.7 vs Los Angeles: 11.8
Errors (L5) +41.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Hits (L5) +21.4% more
Philadelphia: 8.6 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.0 2
PHI Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.1 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 8.7 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 11.8 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
LAD
PHI
LAD
ML
59% 97-67
56% 92-73
49% 80-84
48% 79-87
ATS
65% 107-57
59% 98-67
51% 83-81
43% 72-94
TTL
57% 88-67-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-76-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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