Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Angels STL @ LAA

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

51-48  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jul 20 • 10:00 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

40-61  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy 7-4 3.59 1.41 6.0 4
Jose Fermin None-None 2.90 -- 1.0 2
7-4 W-L None-None
3.59 ERA Ldr 2.90
1.41 WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
37%
📊
ANGELS
63%
CARDINALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

Angels Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ST. LOUIS
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 0
Jul 21, 2026 STL @ LAA 1 - 5
Jul 20, 2026 STL @ LAA 2 - 3
Apr 2, 2025 LAA @ STL 5 - 12
Apr 1, 2025 LAA @ STL 9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.691 ▲
OPS
.679
167 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +47.2% more
Los Angeles: 10.3 vs St. Louis: 7.0
Home Runs (L5) +27.0% more
St. Louis: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Walks (L5) +22.9% more
St. Louis: 4.7 vs Los Angeles: 3.6
Total Bases (L5) +17.4% more
St. Louis: 12.0 vs Los Angeles: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.5 2
LAA Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.8 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 7.0 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 12.0 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
STL
LAA
STL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 85-74
55% 89-73
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-65
56% 89-70
51% 82-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 68-81-10
52% 82-75-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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