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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

43-57  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Jul 20 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

51-49  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mitch Bratt
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Bratt

#60 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeffrey Springs 3-9 5.96 1.42 5.0 2
Mitch Bratt 0-0 5.06 1.67 4.2 4
3-9 W-L 0-0
5.96 ERA Ldr 5.06
1.42 Ldr WHIP 1.67
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
40%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
60%
ATHLETICS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 54%
Under 0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ATH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
ATHLETICS
5.2
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 15
Jul 21, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 6
Jul 20, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025 ARI @ ATH 6 - 4
Aug 2, 2025 ARI @ ATH 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲ .720
194 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.5% more
Arizona: 4.0 vs Athletics: 2.9
Home Runs (L5) +21.9% more
Arizona: 1.4 vs Athletics: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season) +5.8% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season) +14.4% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.2 5
ARI Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 9.6 8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 15.5 13.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
ATH
ARI
ATH
ML
54% 87-74
59% 95-67
54% 86-74
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
52% 84-78
56% 89-71
50% 81-80
TTL
52% 80-73-8
54% 84-73-5
49% 73-77-9
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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