WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
51-50 | Road
7
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
40-62 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-3 | 4.22 | 1.45 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Kyle Freeland | 2-8 | 7.28 | 1.57 | 6.0 | 4 |
2-3
W-L
2-8
4.22 Ldr
ERA
7.28
1.45 Ldr
WHIP
1.57
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
63%
ROCKIES
37%
NATIONALS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.7%
COL By 1-2 runs
14.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
6.8
WASHINGTON
Colorado
5.2
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Washington
8
WASHINGTON
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u12.0
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
o12.0
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
COL @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
COL @ WSH
13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026
WSH @ COL
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.744
▲
OPS
.739
210
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+63.1% more
Washington: 4.6
vs
Colorado: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Washington: 9.8
vs
Colorado: 8.2
Home Runs (Season)
+14.3% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.5% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
6.8
7
COL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.6
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.8
3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 16.5
7.0 / 24.0
Walks
1.7 / 4.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
WSH
COL
WSH
ML
60%
97-64
57%
92-69
55%
88-73
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-64
58%
93-68
52%
83-78
57%
91-70
TTL
60%
93-62-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
77-78-6
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
!role~Preview!mt~photo!fmt~JPEG%20Baseline)
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
Cleveland Guardians Set ALDS Roster Without Rhys Hoskins, Colin …
Two Minor League Players Hit with 56-Game Bans for Banned Substa…