CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
53-46 | Road
10
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
50-50 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Erick Fedde
#47 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | 5-6 | 4.16 | 1.42 | 4.0 | 6 |
| Jacob deGrom | 7-5 | 3.76 | 1.01 | 4.2 | 6 |
5-6
W-L
7-5
4.16
ERA
Ldr 3.76
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.01
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
6
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
32%
RANGERS
68%
WHITE SOX
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2.5
CHICAGO
Texas
4.5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Texas
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
TEX @ CHW
4 - 10
Aug 25, 2026
TEX @ CHW
7 - 11
Aug 24, 2026
TEX @ CHW
11 - 2
Jul 22, 2026
CHW @ TEX
4 - 2
Jul 21, 2026
CHW @ TEX
0 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Texas
TEX
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.826
▲
OPS
.713
1
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18200.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+50.0% more
Texas: 1.3
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Hits (L5)
+36.6% more
Texas: 9.7
vs
Chicago: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+34.2% more
Texas: 15.9
vs
Chicago: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.5
10
TEX Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 7.1
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 10.2
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 11.9
15.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.6
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CHW
TEX
CHW
ML
53%
86-76
49%
81-86
57%
91-70
56%
94-73
ATS
57%
92-70
59%
99-68
61%
98-63
56%
93-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
58%
96-69-2
55%
81-66-14
51%
84-81-2
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