Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Royals SF @ KC

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

42-58  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jul 20 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

41-60  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor McDonald 3-7 5.12 1.30 4.0 3
Michael Wacha 5-7 3.66 1.19 6.0 5
3-7 W-L 5-7
5.12 ERA Ldr 3.66
1.30 WHIP Ldr 1.19
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
37%
📊
ROYALS
63%
GIANTS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Kansas City)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

34.5%

Royals Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

SF By 1-2 runs

14.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

8.9%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
SAN FRANCISCO
5.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
5
SAN FRANCISCO
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 SF @ KC 4 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 SF @ KC 2 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SF @ KC 3 - 4
May 21, 2025 KC @ SF 8 - 4
May 20, 2025 KC @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.706
OPS
▲ .718
178 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +25.6% more
Kansas City: 15.3 vs San Francisco: 12.2
Hits (L5) +20.4% more
Kansas City: 9.0 vs San Francisco: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season) +3.1% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.2%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs San Francisco: 70.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.2 3
KC Score 5.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 7.5 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 11.2 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 12.2 12.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SF
KC
SF
ML
55% 89-72
49% 79-81
56% 90-70
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 91-70
62% 100-60
58% 93-67
52% 83-77
TTL
58% 90-64-7
55% 82-68-10
54% 83-70-7
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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