SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
49-51 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
58-41 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
JP Sears
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Sears | 2-2 | 4.38 | 1.42 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Bryce Elder | 5-6 | 4.06 | 1.25 | 6.0 | 4 |
2-2
W-L
5-6
4.38
ERA
Ldr 4.06
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
41%
BRAVES
59%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.5
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5.5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+53.1% more
Atlanta: 8.2
vs
San Diego: 5.4
Home Runs (L5)
+9.9% more
Atlanta: 2.5
vs
San Diego: 2.2
Walks (L5)
+39.9% more
San Diego: 4.8
vs
Atlanta: 2.9
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.5
2
ATL Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.5 / 11.1
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 5.4
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
21.1 / 20.3
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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