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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

49-52  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Jul 20 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

51-48  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Shane Baz
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Baz

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane Baz 4-9 4.05 1.39 6.0 6
Payton Tolle 5-6 3.31 1.07 5.2 9
4-9 W-L 5-6
4.05 ERA Ldr 3.31
1.39 WHIP Ldr 1.07
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.2
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
36%
📊
RED SOX
64%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Boston)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

35.4%

Red Sox Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
BALTIMORE
5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Sox Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +53.0% more
Boston: 1.8 vs Baltimore: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +24.9% more
Boston: 13.6 vs Baltimore: 10.9
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.5 5
BOS Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 4.0
Hits 6.5 / 6.5 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 11.1 9.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 10.9 14.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.7 / 5.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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