PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
52-49 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
56-44 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Weathers
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 9-3 | 3.95 | 1.11 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Ryan Weathers | 3-7 | 4.40 | 1.24 | 4.2 | 5 |
9-3
W-L
3-7
3.95 Ldr
ERA
4.40
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.24
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
33%
YANKEES
67%
PIRATES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.8
PITTSBURGH
New York
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Yankees
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Yankees
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 22, 2026
PIT @ NYY
0 - 2
Jul 20, 2026
PIT @ NYY
5 - 8
Apr 6, 2025
NYY @ PIT
4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025
NYY @ PIT
10 - 4
Apr 4, 2025
NYY @ PIT
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.734
OPS
▲
1.041
186
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+12.2%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+11.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.8
5
NYY Score
4.8
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.7
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 10.8
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 16.7
18.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
PIT
NYY
PIT
ML
47%
76-85
52%
82-77
52%
85-77
52%
85-78
ATS
59%
95-66
54%
86-73
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
72-81-6
53%
82-72-7
50%
79-78-6
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