Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Yankees LAD @ NYY

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

63-37  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 7:20 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

55-44  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ryan Yarbrough
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Yarbrough

#33 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Klein 3-4 2.58 1.37 1.0 1
Ryan Yarbrough 2-0 3.86 1.22 2.2 1
3-4 W-L 2-0
2.58 Ldr ERA 3.86
1.37 WHIP Ldr 1.22
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
63%
📊
YANKEES
37%
DODGERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

64.6%

Yankees Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYY By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
3.5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 LAD @ NYY 1 - 2
Jul 17, 2026 LAD @ NYY 2 - 1
Jun 1, 2025 NYY @ LAD 7 - 3
May 31, 2025 NYY @ LAD 2 - 18
May 30, 2025 NYY @ LAD 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.762
OPS
▲ 1.041
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +58.7% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs New York: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +82.2% more
New York: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Total Bases (L5) +48.1% more
New York: 14.1 vs Los Angeles: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 1
NYY Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 5.7 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.1 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 9.5 13.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.5 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
LAD
NYY
LAD
ML
47% 76-85
56% 92-73
52% 85-77
48% 79-87
ATS
59% 95-66
59% 98-67
53% 86-76
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-7
48% 77-82-6
53% 82-72-7
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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