ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
51-47 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
51-48 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andre Pallante
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante | 10-6 | 4.02 | 1.26 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 8-3 | 2.62 | 1.17 | 2.2 | 3 |
10-6
W-L
8-3
4.02
ERA
Ldr 2.62
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
32%
DIAMONDBACKS
68%
CARDINALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.2
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
5.2
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.720
167
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+32.8% more
Arizona: 13.2
vs
St. Louis: 10.0
Walks (L5)
+29.0% more
Arizona: 4.0
vs
St. Louis: 3.1
Home Runs (L5)
+20.0% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.6% more
Arizona: 8.4
vs
St. Louis: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.2
7
ARI Score
5.2
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.7
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 10.0
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.1
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
STL
ARI
STL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
85-74
54%
86-74
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
56%
89-71
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-10
49%
73-77-9
50%
76-75-10
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